import numpy as np import scipy.stats as st class MEBOOT: def __init__(self,x,trimval=0.1,seed=None): ''' x: multivariate-time series N x T trimval: trim value (default 0.1) ''' self.sd = np.random.RandomState(seed) m,n = x.shape self.meanx = x.mean(axis=1) self.sdx = x.std(axis=1) self.ordxx = np.argsort(x,axis=1) xx = x.ravel()[self.ordxx.ravel()].reshape(x.shape) self.z = 0.5*(xx[:,1:]+xx[:,:-1]) dv = abs(np.diff(x,axis=1)) dvtrim = st.trim_mean(dv,trimval,axis=1) self.xmin = xx[:, 0]- dvtrim self.xmax = xx[:,-1]+ dvtrim tmp = np.array([[0.25]*(n-2)+[0.5]*(n-2)+[0.25]*(n-2)]) cmd = (np.column_stack((xx[:,:n-2],xx[:,1:n-1],xx[:,2:n])) * tmp) aux = np.array([cmd[:,i::n-2].sum(axis=1) for i in range(n-2)]).T self.desintxb = np.column_stack((0.75 * xx[:,:1] + 0.25 * xx[:,1:2], aux, 0.25 * xx[:,-2:-1] + 0.75 * xx[:,-1:])) def _mrapproxpy(self,p,z,desintxb): m,n = p.shape q = -np.inf*np.ones((n)*m) a = (p//(1/n)-1).astype(int) hs = np.arange(n-2) dz = np.column_stack(([-np.inf]*m,np.diff(z,axis=1)*n,[0]*m)).ravel() sz = np.column_stack(([0]*m,(0.5*(z[:,hs+1]+z[:,hs]))[:,hs],[0]*m)).ravel() zt = np.column_stack(([-np.inf]*m,z[:,hs],[-np.inf]*m)).ravel() dh = np.column_stack(([-np.inf]*m,desintxb[:,hs],[0]*m)).ravel() plus = (n*np.arange(m))[np.newaxis].T jx = (np.tile(range(n),(m,1))+plus).ravel() ixo = a+1 ix = (ixo+plus).ravel() tmp = zt[ix]+dh[ix]- sz[ix] q[jx] = dz[ix]*(p.ravel()[jx]-(ixo.ravel())/n)+tmp return q.reshape((m,n)) def _expandSD(self,bt,fiv): obt = len(bt.shape) if obt==2: bt = bt[np.newaxis] sd = self.sdx bt = np.swapaxes(bt,0,1) sdf = np.column_stack((sd,bt.std(axis=2))) sdfa = sdf/sdf[:,:1] sdfd = sdf[:,:1]/sdf mx = 1+(fiv/100) idx = np.where(sdfa<1) sdfa[idx] = np.random.uniform(1,mx,size=len(idx[0])) sdfdXsdfa = sdfd[:,1:]*sdfa[:,1:] bt *= np.moveaxis(sdfdXsdfa[np.newaxis],0,-1) bt = np.swapaxes(bt,0,1) if obt==2: bt = bt[0] return bt def _adjust(self,bt): zz = np.column_stack((self.xmin[np.newaxis].T,self.z,self.xmax[np.newaxis].T)) v = np.diff(zz**2,axis=1)/12 xb = self.meanx[np.newaxis].T s1 = ((self.desintxb - xb)**2).sum(axis=1) act_sd = np.sqrt( (s1+v.sum(axis=1))/(self.z.shape[1]+1) ) des_sd = self.sdx kappa =( des_sd/ act_sd -1)[np.newaxis].T bt = bt + kappa* (bt - xb) return bt def bootstrap(self,fiv=5,adjust_sd=True): ''' Single realization of ME Bootstrap for the multivariate time series. fiv: Increment standard deviation (default fiv=5 %) adjust_sd: Fix the standard deviation from the observation. ''' m,n = self.z.shape n+=1 p = self.sd.uniform(0,1,size=(m,n)) q = self._mrapproxpy(p,self.z,self.desintxb[:,1:]) f_low = np.column_stack((self.xmin[np.newaxis].T,self.z[:,0])) f_hi = np.column_stack((self.z[:,-1],self.xmax[np.newaxis].T)) low = p<1/n hi = p>(n-1)/n for i in range(m): q[i][low[i]] = np.interp(p[i][low[i]],[0,1/n],f_low[i]) q[i][hi[i]] = np.interp(p[i][hi[i]],[(n - 1)/n,1],f_hi[i]) qseq = np.sort(q[i]) q[i][self.ordxx[i]] = qseq if fiv!=None: q = self._expandSD(q,fiv) if adjust_sd==True: q = self._adjust(q) return q def bootstrap_clt(self,nt,fiv=5,adjust_sd=True): ''' Multiple ME boostrap copies. Force the central limit theorem. Warning it requires to compute all bootstrap copies at once, so it could require a lot of memory. nt: number of bootstrap copies fiv: Increment standard deviation (default fiv=5 %) adjust_sd: Fix the standard deviation from the observation. ''' bt = np.array([self.bootstrap(fiv=None) for i in range(nt)]) if fiv!=None: bt = self._expandSD(bt,fiv) bt = np.swapaxes(bt,0,1) N,nt,T = bt.shape gm = self.meanx s = self.sdx smean = s/ np.sqrt(nt) xbar = bt.mean(axis=2) sortxbar = np.sort(xbar,axis=1) oo = np.argsort(xbar,axis=1) newbar = gm[np.newaxis].T + st.norm.ppf((np.arange(1,nt+1)/(nt+1))[np.newaxis])* smean[np.newaxis].T scn = st.zscore(newbar,axis=1) newm = scn*smean[np.newaxis].T+gm[np.newaxis].T meanfix = newm- sortxbar oinv = np.array([np.array(sorted(zip(oo[i],range(len(oo[i])))))[:,1] for i in range(len(oo))]) out = np.array([(bt[i][oo[i]]+meanfix[i][np.newaxis].T)[oinv[i]] for i in range(bt.shape[0])]) out = np.swapaxes(out,0,1) if adjust_sd==True: out = self._adjust(out) return out